From landslide to hung parliament – the seats to watch on election night

A run down of some of the key constituencies to keep an eye on in the early hours of Friday morning from CSW’s sister site PoliticsHome


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By Richard Johnstone

07 Jun 2017

With opinion polls all over the place, even the most confident pundits cannot say with conviction what the result is going to look like come Friday morning. We've taken a look at some key seats which could determine what the 2017-22 Parliament will look like – some are interesting in their own right, others more emblematic of the kinds of the seats the parties will be looking to take for their campaigns to be considered a success.

Wirral West (LAB)

Labour’s Margaret Greenwood is defending a slim majority here, having defeated Esther McVey in 2015. If she can hold on it could signal a better-than-expected night for Labour and a pretty dreadful one for Theresa May. McVey herself is running again a few seats over in Tatton, where it’s safe to say she’s got a good chance of a win.

Chorley (LAB)

We could have picked any number of similar northern seats with middling Labour majorities, but deputy speaker Lindsay Hoyle’s seat is just the sort of place the Tories need to grab if they are to get to the sort of triple-figure majority many expected at the start of the campaign. Ukip got 7,000 votes last time and are not fielding a candidate, so this one is very much in play.

Birmingham Erdington (LAB)

Theresa May has been criss-crossing the Midlands this campaign and Jack Dromey’s seat is one the Tories have high hopes of securing. Again, the 2015 Ukip vote is larger than the Labour majority and again, Ukip aren’t standing. They’ll need a 7.4% overall swing to get over the line. 

Brighton Kemptown (CON)

One of the test cases for the progressive tactical voting. Tory MP Simon Kirby has a wafer-thin majority and the Greens have stood down their candidate to give Labour a better chance of victory.

Southampton Itchen (CON)

If it’s a good night for Labour they could win back a seat they held from 1992-2015. Tory incumbent Royston Smith has a majority of just over 2,000, so Labour’s Simon Letts will be hoping for some tactical votes from Lib Dem and Green supporters.

Thurrock (CON)

Ukip’s best chance of a seat was a three-way marginal in 2015, with the purple party getting over 15,000 votes. It’s about the only seat area where Kippers are talking a good game, but they would need to take votes off the Tories and Labour to succeed, so it looks tough.

Hemsworth (LAB)

The longest-held Labour seat looks safe enough, with a 12,000 majority for Corbyn ally Jon Trickett. If this West Yorkshire mining area goes blue we can be pretty sure it’s been a cataclysmic night for Labour. Could it happen? It would need a few thousands voters to switch directly from Labour to Tory, plus virtually all of those 2015 Ukip voters to shift into the blue column. Unlikely to fall, but totemic if it does. 

Bolsover (LAB)

Home of the Beast himself, Dennis Skinner. This Derbyshire constituency ought to be safe Labour territory but we’re told the Tories are going after one of Jeremy Corbyn’s keenest supporters in the hope of a ‘Portillo moment’ of their own.

Westmorland and Lonsdale (LD)

For a national party leader, Tim Farron has been spending a fair bit of time in his own constituency, which suggests the Lib Dems are pretty worried about losing. Ukip got 3,000 votes here last time out but have stood down this time, boosting the chances of Tory candidate James Airey. We’re all on tenterhooks to see how Mr Fishfinger fares as well.

Aberdeen South (SNP)

The SNP’s Callum McCaig has a health-looking 9,000+ majority in the granite city, but it’s in the Tories’ sights this time after a strong performance in the Scottish parliamentary elections from candidate Ross Thomson. Taking this seat – a surprise win for John Major in 1992 – would be the sign of a very good night indeed for the Scottish Tories.

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