The Department for Work and Pensions has been forced to correct a press release after the Office for Statistics Regulation publicly raised concerns about a “misleading” figure.
The problematic statistic was in a press release published by the DWP on 13 March titled "Almost two million people on Universal Credit not supported to look for work", which preceded the government's announcement of benefit reforms later that month.
The original version of the press release said the number of people receiving the health or disability-related element of Universal Credit “with no requirement to look for work has almost quadrupled since the start of the pandemic, when 360,000 people were considered too sick to look for work – a 383% rise in less than five years”.
In a letter to DWP permanent secretary Peter Schofield, Rob Kent-Smith, the OSR’s deputy head, said the 383% claim presented "an entirely misleading picture to the public”.
He said the figure did not recognise that the majority of this increase is due to the process of migrating people from legacy benefits, such as Employment and Support Allowance, to Universal Credit over the last few years.
“When these people are accounted for, the actual increase in the number of people claiming disability elements of Universal Credit is 50%,” Kent-Smith said.
Kent-Smith said the department amended the press release on 27 March after the OSR raised concerns, and that the updated version “includes some references to people moving from other benefits and acknowledges that the number of people with no requirement to look for work across Universal Credit health and other benefits since the pandemic has increased by 50%”.
But he said these additions had not gone far enough as the press release still placed “considerable emphasis on the misleading 383% figure” and did not “provide the necessary context in a way that members of the general public would understand”.
Kent-Smith asked the department to remove references to the figure and to not use it again. He also said the department should state that the press release had been updated for transparency.
Yesterday, DWP edited the article, removing any mention of the 383% figure and putting in a note saying that the press release "has been revised, clarifying the figures related to increased UC LCWRA caseload”.
Kent-Smith's letter also included a warning to the department over future communications.
“It is vital that statisticians are included in the drafting process for communications using official statistics, including press releases, to ensure that such an issue is not repeated in the future,” he said.
“As the head of profession for statistics [at DWP], Steve Ellerd-Elliott (copied), should be supported by the department in upholding his responsibility to ensure statistics are used appropriately.”
A DWP spokesperson said: “Our press notice focused on new data released by the department at the time. We accept the views of the OSR and have made the necessary amends to reflect their feedback, honouring our commitment to transparency.”