NHS trusts are heading for a £2.3bn deficit by the end of the financial year, a leading health think-tank has warned.
Three months ago the King's Fund predicted that trusts could be more than £2bn in the red by the end of the financial year, but it has now stepped up its warning.
It said the financial position, as well as performance, of trusts was deteriorating, resulting in a “make or break” year for the NHS in England. Its findings, based on numbers from about one in three trusts, suggest two thirds are on course to overspend, including almost 90% of acute hospital trusts.
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Professor John Appleby, the chief economist of the King's Fund, said: "Even with the additional funding recently provided by the Treasury and a big switch from capital to revenue spending, it is touch and go whether the Department of Health will be able to balance its budget at the end of the year.
"At the same time, performance is deteriorating with key targets being missed with increasing regularity and increasing concerns being raised about the quality of patient care. This is shaping up to be a make-or-break year for the NHS."
But health minister Alistair Burt countered: "There should never be a choice between providing safe care – our top priority – and balancing the books, which is why we're investing £10bn to fund the NHS's own plan for the future, including nearly £4bn next year.
"Despite being busy, the NHS continues to perform well – last year the service performed 1.6 million more operations and treated 2,100 more people every day within the four-hour A&E target compared to 2010."