The number of red-rated government projects in the Government Major Projects Portfolio has increased despite a fall in the overall size of the portfolio.
The number of major government projects that are considered currently unachievable has gone up from 24 to 27 – while the total number of projects in the GMPP fell to 227 in 2023-24, down from 244 the year before.
This means 12% of the portfolio is red rated, the highest proportion since the GMPP was created in 2013. The cost associated with red projects has meanwhile risen from £94bn to £96.8bn, according to the report.
With many previously amber projects turning red, the number of amber-rated projects has dropped from 183 to 163. The number of green-rated projects has, meanwhile, decreased only slightly from 26 to 25.
The GMPP has a total whole-life cost of £834bn this year, compared to £805bn last year. It has £719bn of monetised benefits, compared to last year's £758bn, delivered by 21 departments and arm’s-length bodies.
The figures are revealed in the Infrastructure and Projects Authority’s annual report for 2023-24, which was published last week.
The GMPP – run by the IPA, a joint Treasury and Cabinet Office agency which is soon to be combined with the National Infrastructure Commission to become the National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority – brings together the government's most ambitious, costly and, often, high-risk schemes. The IPA provides extra support to departments in delivering these programmes and assesses confidence in delivery through a red/amber/green rating system.
This year's GMPP has 36 new joiners, while 191 projects remain and 53 have left.
The IPA said the number of red-rated projects has grown due to two main factors. Firstly, four of the 36 new programmes that have joined the GMPP are red rated. Secondly, a number of programmes in the delivery stage are now red rated “due to unprecedented issues over recent years such as high inflation, challenging net-zero targets, global demand and skills shortages”, the agency said.
New red rated programmes in the portfolio in 2023-24 include:
- The Home Office’s Manston Transformation Programme (which entered the portfolio this year), which aims to build a safe, secure and legally compliant asylum processing centre at Manston
- The Office for National Statistics’ Future Population, Migration and Social Statistics System (another new entry), which aims to create a sustainable system that will allow the ONS to scale up while remaining flexible and dynamic in how it responds to emerging issues
- The ONS’s Integrated Data Programme, which will enable accredited analysts and researchers from government, wider public services and research organisations to produce faster and deeper analytical outputs of targeted public policy questions and more effective social, health, economic and environmental outcomes
The Ministry of Defence has the most red-rated programmes (eight), but also has the largest portfolio, with 49 projects in the GMPP. At the other end of the scale, the Treasury has just one programme (NS&I Rainbow) but, as this is red rated, it has the highest proportion of red-rated schemes.
Portfolio projects are split into four categories: Government Transformation and Service Delivery, Military Capability, Infrastructure and Construction, and Information and Communication Technology.
GTSD has the most red-rated projects (10) this year, but also makes up a large proportion of the portfolio, with 89 projects (39% of the GMPP). ICT is the category with the highest proportion of red-rated projects out of its total projects (15%).
To improve projects, the IPA said it is focused on building capability to improve project performance. The number of senior responsible owner who are undertaking or have already completed training at the Major Projects Leadership Academy has increased from 66% to 76% in the last year. The IPA said it is also embedding its "front-end loading principles", with the average SRO now spending 60% of their time on projects in pre-delivery compared to 42% three years ago.
The IPA is also building that project-delivery capability. Some 2,500 officials have taken part in its Project Leadership Programme, with 1,800 graduating.
Which departments have the biggest portfolios?
The GMPP consists of projects from 21 departments with varying portfolio sizes. The MoD has the largest portfolio and the highest whole-life cost by department. Its 49 projects account for over a fifth of the portfolio by number. It delivers all of the 44 military-capability projects, as well as four ICT projects and one infrastructure and construction project.
The Home Office has the second largest portfolio. Of the 22 projects that are led by the department, 16 are transformation and service delivery projects, five are ICT projects, and one is an infrastructure and construction project.
The Ministry of Justice has the third-largest number of projects, but is the fourth-most significant contributor to the GMPP’s whole-life cost. Of the 21 projects led by the MoJ, eight are infrastructure and construction projects, ten are transformation and service delivery projects and five are ICT projects.
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has the second-highest whole-life cost by department. Of its 18 projects, 16 are in infrastructure and construction projects and two are transformation and service delivery projects.