Theresa May has been warned that it would be “reckless” to ignore the differing views of the UK’s devolved nations during negotiations on leaving the EU, as the prime minister prepares to meet the leaders of the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments.
May will later chair a Joint Ministerial Committee in London, bringing together the leaders of the devolved administrations. Ahead of the meeting, Downing Street has pledged to offer the first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland a “direct line” to Brexit Secretary David Davis to allow them to help shape the UK's EU exit.
But the new report by think-tank the Institute for Government underscores the extent to which differing attitudes to leaving the European Union in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland will add an extra layer of complication to Westminster’s ability to strike a deal with Brussels.
Brexit: Number 10 says MPs will "very likely" vote on final deal
Brexit focus pledged for "improved and refreshed" Single Departmental Plans
Theresa May warned over mismatch between policy ambition and fresh departmental cuts
It points out that all devolved nations have subtly different stances on delivering Brexit – including different referendum results, and different views on what will and what will not be acceptable to them.
Both Scotland and Northern Ireland had majority votes to remain in the EU in the June referendum, while Wales’ result mirrored the UK-wide 52% majority to leave.
The IfG says that while it would be “convenient” for May’s government to ignore sentiment in Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh, doing so would increase the likelihood of Scottish independence and risk the collapse of power-sharing in Northern Ireland.
“Imposing a Brexit settlement in the absence of consent from the devolved bodies may be legally possible, given that the UK parliament remains sovereign,” said report authors Akash Paun and George Miller.
“However, this would run contrary to convention and to the spirit of devolution, which recognises the right of the three devolved nations to determine their own form of government.
“If the dog topples over after a few tentative steps, and consensus cannot be reached, the result could be a constitutional crisis" – Akash Paun, Institute for Government
“It would also be a reckless strategy for a government committed to the union, since it would seriously undermine relationships between the four governments, and increase the chances of Scottish independence and rifts in Northern Ireland’s fragile power-sharing arrangements."
"The stakes are high"
Paun and Miller urge the prime minister to create a new committee bringing together lead ministers for Brexit from each of the four governments to discuss and agree upon the UK strategy for exiting the EU.
They say it should be established as a subcommittee within the existing Joint Ministerial Committee framework, and be supported by a joint secretariat.
The IfG authors say that while the most serious political disagreements would need to be resolved between the four heads of government, detailed discussions could be delegated.
The identify three key stages at which the devolved administrations must be consulted: pre-Article 50 triggering, when common ground for negotiations should be agreed; during formal negotiations between the UK and the EU, at which devolved nations may be most at risk of losing their voices; and in the post-Brexit relations between the devolved nations and the EU.
Paun and Miller said clarity on what would be agreed, when it would happen and how it would happen would all be key elements in ensuring that negotiations were conducted constructively and in good faith.
Speaking ahead of a meeting between May and the devolved-nation heads, IfG fellow Paun added: “As with a dog walking on its hind legs, we should be impressed if the four governments manage to work together at all. But when it comes to Brexit, the stakes are high.
“If the dog topples over after a few tentative steps, and consensus cannot be reached, the result could be a constitutional crisis.
“Today’s meeting offers us the chance to assess the willingness and ability of these politicians to find agreement on the way forward. We hope concrete suggestions emerge for how they will work together. A high-profile, public-facing committee should be the first step.”
Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon yesterday dialled up the pressure on May, calling for the Scottish government to be treated as an “equal partner” in the Brexit negotiation process.
Writing in the Financial Times on Monday, Sturgeon urged the prime minister to pursue a “flexible” deal whereby the devolved nations can opt to retain access to the single market.